Merritt Centennials Analysis: “Road woes and struggling with the big dogs”

MERRITT — The story of the Centennials this season has been a tale of two themes. 

On the positive side of things, the Cents are no longer the consistent dead last team in the BCHL as they sit 7th in the Interior with a good chance of taking 6th from Cranbrook. They are 13th out of 17 teams which shows they are trending in the right direction. That’s because they have been dead last in the league for four seasons prior.

With one more win the Cents will surpass their highest win total since Joe Martin’s 2018/19 Centennials that had one of their best seasons ever in Merritt. That year they finished first in the Interior with a sparkling 36-15-4-3 record. The Cents were shocked in the first round that season falling in five games to the Trail Smoke Eaters. 

On the negative side of things this season’s record of 14-20-3-1 doesn’t stand out immediately as a success story. After a win on opening night over the worst team in the BCHL the Powell River Kings the Cents have gone 13-24 for 24 losses in 37 games since.

“Road Woes.”

It’s always tough to win on the road,

Their road record has also been abysmal. After starting 2-2 on the road The Cents have gone 3-11 on the road 11 losses in 14 games on the bus. Of the three lone wins one was in Seattle against Victoria in a neutral arena with no home fans supporting the Grizzlies.

The other road wins were in West Kelowna and an impressive 4-1 win in Alberni Valley on their teddy bear toss night. Another interesting stat to consider is how the team fares on the road while staying in a hotel the game prior compared to bussing there and back. The results are a little staggering. The Cents only have one win all season on the road when bussing. 

We will not count the four hour sleep from Vernon to Prince George with basically a cup of coffee in the hotel before getting beat by the Spruce Kings as that was more of a landing pad then anything after arriving at 4 a.m. from Vernon. 

The trip to Cranbrook the Cents stayed in a hotel both nights and won both games. They would do the same soon after and drop their “hotel record” to 2-1-0-0. The Cents would stay in a hotel in Seattle and go 1-0-1-0 improving their record to 3-1-1-0. The Cents would stay in a hotel before the Alberni Valley game and win, improving their “hotel record” to 4-1-1-0. 

Now on games where the Cents bus there and then have to bus home the same night here is a scary stat for you. 1-10-0-1. The Cents are almost an automatic loss when bussing there before the game that night. Their lone win was a 4-3 win over the West Kelowna Warriors. 

Some of the bus rides are only two to three hours max with West Kelowna, Penticton, Vernon and West Kelowna so close by. Even the Langley and Surrey trips if you want to throw those in there. 

There is also nothing the Centennials can do to change this, they have to learn to win while bussing there. It’s a part of junior hockey and it’s something the Cents are just going to have to get through. Hockey is about adversity and this is a challenge the Cents need to break through.

As mentioned it’s not like some of these trips are that long but “heavy bus legs” seem to be killing the Cents. Obviously the strength of competition is something to be considered too but the stats speak for themselves.

That may suggest the Cents lose this Friday (February 9th, 2024) in Trail then win in Cranbrook Saturday if that statistic holds true. Here’s hoping the Cents sweep the weekend. 

“Can’t hang with the big dogs of the Interior.”

You can hardly call Vernon one of the big dogs of the Interior but most of their wins have been padded by the Centennials. They have been a dominant team in the past but have slipped a little bit of late. Not when they play the Centennials. 

Vernon’s record against Merritt: 4-0-0-0 (All regulation wins.)

Penticton’s record against Merritt: 6-0-0-0 (5 year winning streak over 25 games. All in regulation, three blowout wins.)

West Kelowna’s record against Merritt: 6-2-0-0 (5 straight wins over Merritt, last three wins all blowout wins. Two were overtime wins.)

Salmon Arm’s record against Merritt: 1-0-0-0 (a 7-1 win. blowout win)

If you put that record together Merritt is 2-15-2-0 against the Top Four teams in the Interior. Their other five regular season losses came in Cowichan Valley, in Trail, in Surrey (the best team in the BCHL,) in Prince George and versus the Chilliwack Chiefs. Only one of those coming at home against one of the hottest teams in the league Chilliwack. 

So if we take out the top four teams in the Interior (Penticton, West Kelowna, Salmon Arm, Vernon) Merritt has a record of 12-5-1-1 against the rest of the BCHL. 

It doesn’t bode well for the playoffs. The Centennials have two games left in Penticton and four games left against Salmon Arm and one last home game against Vernon. That’s really their only chance to turn the story of the season around that Merritt cannot hang with the top teams in the Interior. 

The Centennials are in a spot where they are guaranteed to play Penticton, West Kelowna or Salmon Arm in the first round of the playoffs unless they erase a 10 point deficit and run the table against the Trail Smoke Eaters.

“Best case scenario”

At this point the Cents simply don’t match up well against Penticton after going 0-6.

It can be agreed that’s the worst matchup in round one so if the Vees hold that top spot and Prince George overtakes Merritt- which is possible – the Cents will get their worst matchup in round one. 

The Cents hung with West Kelowna pretty well early in the season then got rocked 5-0, 6-2, and 8-3 in the last three matchups as the Warriors have added players and become a whole new team in the second half. The Warriors added Minnesota Wild draft pick Sean Keohane and a few others and are rolling in the second half.

Despite all this it could be argued this could still be the lesser of evils. 

As for Salmon Arm all we’ve seen is the Cents losing 7-1 in Salmon Arm. The Silverbacks are a dominant team at home so the result wasn’t exactly a surprise.

That being said, the Cents still have four games left against Salmon Arm so it’s hard to judge that matchup on one game. It still looks like a tough matchup as Salmon Arm has beaten the Vees three times this season, they are definitely an elite team. 

The top three spots look like they are anything but set in stone while the bottom three spots are also open for shuffling as well. 

If the Cents can sneak into the 6th spot, where they were earlier in the season there is no telling who they will face but the first round will be tough no matter who they face.