River Forecast Centre predicting high flows through Nicola Lake

The BC River Forecast Centre has released the latest snowpack figures for the region, calculated on February 1, 2021.

Results from the Nicola region are still scarce with more stations set to begin reporting in March, however, Hydrologist Jonathan Boyd joined Q101 to provide an estimate for the area.

“The likelihood is that the Nicola is similar in representation as to the Okanagan snow basin index, which is 111 per cent of normal,” said Boyd.

Technically the Nicola falls within the Middle Fraser Basin, which is at 102 per cent of normal, however, Boyd stated that that figure doesn’t properly represent the area.

Boyd also outlined the seasonal runoff volume forecast for the Nicola River and Nicola Lake.

“The new methodology actually has the volume forecast at 140 to 155 per cent of normal, which is quite a bit higher than the old methodology at 100 to 130 per cent,” said Boyd.

“It’s also quite a bit higher than any snowpacks in the region. So, it’s really using those climate indices and suggesting that based on a La Nina year the likelihood is that we’re going to see wet and cool conditions over the next couple of months,” added Boyd.

The River Forecast Centre releases monthly reports during the Winter, the next report is expected in early March.